Monday, August 26, 2013

Weak Channel Affect

First the Terminology

1) A Task: A task is a particular objective which needs to be completed by performing a predetermined set of milestones. E.g. To get a job is a task, to get married is a task, to buy an object is a task.

2) A Milestone: A Milestone is a smaller unit within a bigger task. E.g. to get a Job you can a) Make your resume, b) Search for openings, c) Apply to openings. d) Prepare for Interview e) Ace the interview. And So on...

3) Channel:- A Channel is a medium used to complete a task. E.g to get a Job monster.com could be a medium, to get married friends/family could be a medium.

I state the Weak Channel Affect as follows.

Among Multiple channels if a particular channel is weak for a particular Milestone within a task than it becomes even weaker for all subsequent dependent milestones within the same task.

E.g. If getting a job is a task, and the channel naukri.com is the weakest in terms of getting shortlists.
Than this same channel will also be weakest in terms of getting an interview call as a ratio to number of shortlists.

E.g. 2) If Marriage is a task and shaadi.com as a channel is the worst performing in terms of searching for a suitable match, than for every 100 searches through this channel fewer will reach the next milestone than any other channel.

The crux is that the channel becomes even weaker even of the denominator is maintained the same as for other channels. 

Mathematically i = 1..n are a set of milestones.
and C is the initial population through a channel
Ei(C) is the number of samples crossing Milestone i, then by definition the weakest channel is one for which 

E1(Weak Channel) is the least of E1(All possible C's)

Now the Weak Channel Affect states that even if we take the same number of people who have crossed the first milestone from C and any other channel. a fewer number of people will cross the next milestone from the weakest channel as compared to other channels.

Examples in Real Life.
1) For a weak set of students, if you somehow get them to pass Grade 1, more will fail Grade 2 compared to a set of strong students, even as a ratio of total students passing grade 1.

2) For a set of poor employees, if you somehow hire them, fewer people will get promoted as opposed to a stronger set of employees.

3) For a poor set of customers, If you somehow pull them to the store. Fewer people will make a purchase as compared to a stronger set even a proportion to number of people entering the store.

....

Conclusions

A poor channel will always remain poor and can not be compensated for by increasing the throughput and hence it always makes sense to focus upon stronger channels even is this means a smaller overall throughput.